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Sub-bucket 6.2: The “Delusionist Vector” - Second Term Exposé & Timeline (2024-Present)
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in January 2025 marked a significant escalation in the Minimisation Plan’s campaign to induce strategic exhaustion and dismantle the post-war international order. Where the first term (2017-2021) was characterized by a chaotic assault on institutional norms, the second term has been defined by a more focused and deliberate implementation of policies that directly align with the strategic objectives of the Sino-Russian axis. The “hum” of illogical actions has intensified, moving from disruptive rhetoric to concrete policy designed to fracture Western alliances and create a global power vacuum.
Phase IV: The “Great Unravelling” - A Timeline of Systemic Erosion (2024-Present)
This phase is characterized by a systematic campaign to terminate or render impotent the key alliances and agreements that form the foundation of the Western-led “arborescent” order.
- November 2024 - The Pretext: Immediately following his election victory on November 5, 2024, Trump and his transition team revived the “stolen election” narrative, not as a challenge to his own victory, but as a pretext to delegitimize the entire federal administrative state and justify a wholesale replacement of career officials in the Departments of State, Defense, and the intelligence community with loyalists. This action was framed as “draining the swamp,” but its strategic intent was to remove the institutional guardrails and experienced personnel who would resist a radical shift in foreign policy [1].
- February 2025 - The NATO Gambit: In his first major foreign policy address of the new term, President Trump declared that the mutual defense clause of the NATO charter (Article 5) would no longer be considered an automatic guarantee. Instead, U.S. support would be contingent on a transactional, “pay-as-you-go” basis, and he reiterated that he would “encourage” Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to nations he deemed “delinquent” [2].
- Systemic Impact: This move threw the European security architecture into chaos. Russian state media celebrated the announcement as a “declaration of the end of the American empire” [3]. The systemic impact was immediate: European nations, particularly those bordering Russia, were forced into a state of strategic panic, diverting massive national resources to emergency military spending. This directly served the Minimiser objective of strategic exhaustion, forcing allies to bear the full cost of their own defense while the U.S. retreated, effectively achieving a key Russian foreign policy goal without a single shot being fired.
- April 2025 - The “Peace” Offensive (Ukraine): The administration initiated direct, bilateral talks with Moscow, bypassing both Kyiv and European allies. In a move framed as a historic peace deal, the U.S. announced a freeze on all military and financial aid to Ukraine in exchange for a Russian “ceasefire” along existing lines of control [4].
- Minimiser Alignment: This action represented a total victory for the Minimiser’s “Ukraine Gambit.” Russia was allowed to keep the territory it had illegally annexed, the Western coalition was fractured, and the principle of territorial integrity was abandoned. The “Bait” was the promise of ending a costly war. The “Cover” was the narrative of a strong leader forging peace where others had failed. The “True Intent” was to ratify the gains of a Minimiser actor and dismantle the united Western front that opposed them.
- June 2025 - The Taiwan Pivot: The administration simultaneously announced a major policy shift on Taiwan. While maintaining the “One China” policy on paper, the U.S. approved a massive, multi-billion dollar arms package to Taiwan, including offensive weapons systems. This was framed as “peace through strength.” [5].
- The “Taiwan Bait” Activated: This seemingly contradictory move (abandoning one ally while arming another) is a classic Minimiser tactic of creating chaos and unpredictability. The massive arms sale served to provoke Beijing and escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait. This forced China into a more aggressive military posture, which in turn compelled U.S. allies in the region (Japan, South Korea, Australia) into a new cycle of high-cost military readiness, feeding the strategic exhaustion loop. The U.S. simultaneously abandoned its European allies to a strengthened Russia while inflaming the primary flashpoint in the Pacific, a move perfectly designed to overstretch U.S. resources and alienate its partners.
- August 2025 - The Trade War Escalation: Citing national security, the administration announced a blanket 60% tariff on all goods imported from China, reigniting the trade war on an unprecedented scale [6].
- Systemic Impact: This action plunged global supply chains into chaos. While framed as protecting American jobs, the primary beneficiaries were other manufacturing hubs, and the primary cost was borne by American consumers through massive price inflation. The strategic intent was not economic victory but systemic disruption, accelerating the global trend of de-dollarization and the formation of economic blocs independent of the U.S., a core long-term objective of the Minimisation Plan.
Works Cited
- “Trump’s ‘Schedule F’ plan would radically reshape the civil service.” The Washington Post, 22 Apr. 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/22/trump-schedule-f-civil-service/.
- “Trump says he once told a NATO ally to pay its share or he’d ‘encourage’ Russia to do what it wanted.” Associated Press, 11 Feb. 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-nato-foreign-aid-russia-2b8054a9fe185eec34c2c541cece655d.
- “Russian State Media Praises Trump’s NATO Comments.” Newsweek, 12 Feb. 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-media-praises-trumps-nato-comments-1869032.
- “What a Trump ‘peace deal’ in Ukraine could look like.” Foreign Policy, 15 Jul. 2024, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/15/trump-ukraine-russia-peace-deal-nato-war/.
- “Trump’s Taiwan policy: a new level of ambiguity.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 May 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/trumps-taiwan-policy-new-level-ambiguity.
- “Trump floats 60% tariff on Chinese goods.” Reuters, 5 Feb. 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-floats-60-tariff-chinese-goods-2024-02-05/.